Bitcoin Might Be Going Through Its “Most Challenging” Cycle Based On This Metric

The current Bitcoin cycle might be its “most challenging” one yet if the drawdown in this on-chain metric is anything to go by.

Total Amount Held By 1k-10k BTC Value Band Has Sharply Gone Down Recently

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the latest drawdown in the holdings of the 1k-10k BTC value band is the most drastic in the history of the crypto. The relevant indicator here is the “UTXO Value Bands,” which tells us the total amount of coins each value band is holding in the market.

UTXOs are divided into these “value bands” or groups based on their current value. For instance, the 100-1k BTC value band includes all UTXOs carrying between 100 and 1,000 coins. Here, the relevant UTXO value band is the 1k-10k BTC range, a historically important cohort as usually only the whales have wallets with UTXO amounts so large.

Now, the below chart displays the trend in the total holdings of this value band over the last five years:

The graph shows that the total number of coins held by this Bitcoin UTXO value band has seen a sharp drop this year. In all, the drawdown has amounted to 453,205.04 BTC being dumped by this cohort since the peak observed in June 2022.

For comparison, in the 2018/19 bear market, the 1k-10k BTC value band saw a total drawdown of 324,868.65 BTC from the high. During the COVID black swan crash of 2020, the group also distributed a significant amount, shedding 186,928.48 from its holdings.

And in the bull run during the first half of last year, these whales reduced their holdings by 407,457.14 BTC between the peak in February and the July bottom. The latest drawdown in the metric’s value is the sharpest that Bitcoin has seen yet. Because of this fact, the quant exclaims the current cycle to be the “most challenging” one in the history of the asset so far.

An interesting pattern can also be seen in the chart; whenever the 1k-10k BTC has finished with the distribution and started accumulating again, Bitcoin has felt a bullish impact. “Generally, the market can only recover when this cohort has enough confidence to accumulate again,” explains the analyst. “And at the moment, we still not get any positive signals from this cohort.”

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $16,600, down 1% in the last week.

by Hououin Kyouma on December 29, 2022 at 12:30AM